Bangladesh’s export sector has narrowly avoided a steep blow as the United States scaled back its proposed tariff on Bangladeshi goods from 35 percent to a uniform 20 percent.

While the revised duty is viewed as a relatively better outcome, economists and trade analysts warn of significant economic and strategic trade-offs.

The new tariff level brings Bangladesh in line with key regional competitors like Vietnam and Cambodia, preserving some degree of export competitiveness.

However, to secure the deal, Bangladesh agreed to a package of concessions, including policy commitments and procurement promises that could burden the national exchequer and reshape foreign relations.

Dr Zaidi Sattar, chairman of the Policy Research Institute, described the 20 percent tariff as “decent, not superb,” but stressed that it prevents Bangladesh from falling behind regional peers. “Our main competitors are in the same boat, or a bit worse off,” he said, calling for stronger trade ties with the US as traditional advantages such as low labour costs erode.

Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, noted the significance of avoiding the original 35 percent tariff. He warned, however, that the accompanying concessions—including aircraft procurement, increased LNG and wheat imports, and commitments on labour and intellectual property reforms—carry lasting policy implications.

The purchase of 25 Boeing aircraft, for example, could cost the government around Tk 500 billion, raising questions about fiscal priorities and external debt sustainability.

Analysts also raised concerns about potential trade-offs with other partners, such as China or Russia, and whether the tariff preference granted to the US may trigger calls for equal treatment under WTO rules, thereby affecting customs revenue.

Dr Selim Raihan, professor of economics at Dhaka University, welcomed the tariff cut, saying it aligns Bangladesh’s position with global trade norms and helps prevent trade diversion.

However, he flagged uncertainties around unresolved tariffs on China, which could influence long-term trade dynamics, especially in the ready-made garments sector, where Bangladesh and China compete directly.