Bangladesh will require an additional 18,162 megawatts (MW) of renewable power by 2030 to secure a 20% share of total capacity, and 35,713 MW by 2040 for a 30% share, according to new research by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

The study, unveiled at a dialogue on Sunday, estimates that $35.2–42.6 billion in investment will be needed between 2025 and 2040, with the bulk concentrated in the first half of the next decade. Renewable energy currently makes up just 3.6% of the national grid, compared with 43.4% from gas-based fuels.

Experts at the event, including senior environment ministry officials, power sector leaders, and economists, warned that without a clear strategy, Bangladesh risks overshooting demand with fossil fuel projects while lagging in clean energy.

The study projects fossil fuel capacity reaching 29,773 MW by 2030, exceeding the expected demand of 22,702 MW.

Speakers called for a “SMART” renewable roadmap with technology diversification, large-scale storage, and regional power trade with India, Nepal, and Bhutan. They also urged establishing a renewable financing facility to mobilise climate funds and provide low-cost credit.

“Investor confidence is very important. BPDB regularly defaults in paying power plant owners,” said Prof M Rezwan Khan, chairman of Power Grid Bangladesh PLC. Former BIPPA president Imran Karim stressed private investment would be critical, estimating $12–14 billion will be needed by 2030.

Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem of CPD warned that continued reliance on fossil fuels could undermine climate goals and strain public finances, urging immediate policy clarity.