The finance ministry is likely to project Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding $500 billion for the first time in the upcoming fiscal year (FY) 2025-26, indicating a potential economic rebound.

According to finance ministry sources, during a recent budget-related meeting attended by Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed, officials estimated that GDP at current prices would reach $517.7 billion (Tk 6,315,923 crore) in FY26.

For the ongoing fiscal year, GDP was initially projected at $491 billion but may be revised downward to $470 billion. This would result in a 10.21% nominal GDP growth in FY26 compared to the revised estimate for the current fiscal year. However, real GDP growth for FY25 is expected to be 4.44%.

Bangladesh’s GDP stood at $450 billion in FY24, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The finance ministry anticipates stronger economic performance in the coming years, aligning with projections from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank, and International Monetary Fund (IMF), despite recent downward revisions for FY25.

The finance ministry is expected to set a real GDP growth target of 6% and an inflation rate of 6.5% for the next fiscal year. However, experts remain cautious. Ashikur Rahman of the Policy Research Institute (PRI) doubts the growth target, citing weak investment and sluggish development spending.

The Bangladesh Bank has projected private sector credit growth at 9.8% by June, with a further rise to 11% in FY26. Exports, remittances, and imports are also expected to increase, with imports projected to grow by 10% in FY26.