The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again revised down its economic growth forecast for Bangladesh, lowering its projection for the fiscal year 2024–25 to 3.76 percent.

The latest estimate, released in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2025 report on Tuesday during the Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF in Washington.

This is the third consecutive downward revision of Bangladesh’s growth prospects by the multilateral lender within a year. The IMF initially projected 4.5 percent growth in October 2023, then revised it to 3.8 percent in December, before settling on the current figure of 3.76 percent.

The revised projection places Bangladesh’s economic growth well below its pre-pandemic average, which hovered around 6 to 7 percent. While the IMF has not provided a detailed country-specific breakdown in the summary report, the adjustments are widely interpreted as reflecting several prevailing issues.

The fiscal consolidation required under the IMF’s $4.7 billion Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangements may also be contributing to the slowdown, as the government attempts to tighten spending and improve revenue collection amidst constrained fiscal space.

According to recent data from the National Board of Revenue, revenue mobilisation has continued to fall short of expectations, and energy import bills and subsidy obligations have further strained public finances.

In its medium-term forecast, the IMF anticipates a rebound in growth in FY2025–26, with the gross domestic product (GDP) expected to expand by 6.53 percent. However, the recovery is projected to lose momentum again in FY2026–27, with growth estimated to taper off to 5.78 percent.