Bangladesh’s fiscal health is under mounting pressure as a pen-down strike by National Board of Revenue (NBR) officials intensifies an ongoing revenue shortfall, economists have said.

“The strike is clearly hampering revenue collection,” Professor Abu Ahmed, Director and Chairman of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh, told UNB on Tuesday. While calling the strike justifiable, he added, “There’s no scope to recoup the losses incurred.”

The protest began after the government’s decision—formalised by presidential ordinance on 13 May—to dissolve the NBR and form two new bodies: the Revenue Management Division and the Revenue Policy Division. Officials cite concerns over job security and role clarity under the new structure.

The strike has stalled key functions, including tax return processing, customs clearances, and VAT collection.

In the first half of FY2024–25, revenue collection dropped by 25% compared to the same period last year, with a shortfall of Tk 577.24 billion. By March, the NBR had collected Tk 2.56 trillion against a target of Tk 3.22 trillion.

Economists say this disruption could further widen the fiscal deficit. The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) projects the shortfall could hit Tk 1.05 trillion by year-end, possibly forcing spending cuts or increased borrowing.

Finance Ministry officials are in talks with striking workers and exploring interim solutions to sustain essential revenue operations.

“There’s no doubt the strike has caused losses,” a senior NBR official told UNB. “But if resolved soon, recovery is possible.”