Long-term inflation expectations among the British public rose in September, a survey by Citi and YouGov showed, highlighting why the Bank of England is cautious in easing monetary policy.

The survey’s gauge of expectations for inflation over five to 10 years increased to 4.1% from 3.9% in August, though still below July’s 4.2% and June’s 4.3%. Short-term expectations held steady at 4.0% for the third consecutive month.

Citi noted that the rise in longer-term expectations was consistent with other surveys, including the Bank of England’s own business sampling.

Earlier this month, the BoE kept its benchmark Bank Rate at 4%, signalling that cuts in borrowing costs may proceed more slowly than previously anticipated. Policymakers cited persistent inflationary pressures as a reason for restraint.

Britain’s headline inflation climbed to 3.8% in August, the highest among G7 nations. The central bank forecasts inflation will peak at 4% in September—twice its 2% target—and return to target only by spring 2027.

The figures underscore ongoing challenges for the BoE as it balances the need to curb inflation with pressure to support economic growth.