Indian exporters are rushing to ship goods ahead of a potential 50% US import tariff, warned by President Donald Trump if New Delhi continues to buy Russian oil.

Trump’s ultimatum, aimed at cutting Moscow’s revenue over its war in Ukraine, would double the newly imposed 25% levy and could take effect from 27 August. India sources about a third of its crude oil from abroad, with Russian supplies playing a major role since 2022.

Economist Garima Kapoor of Elara Securities said a 50% tariff would erase any competitive edge for Indian products in the US.

The United States imported roughly $87bn worth of goods from India in 2024, but low-margin sectors such as textiles, seafood, and gems and jewellery face steep losses. The Global Trade Research Initiative forecasts a 60% drop in US sales in garments alone next year.

Exporters say they are fast-tracking deliveries but warn that any relief will be short-lived. “Whatever we can ship before August 27, we are shipping,” said Vijay Kumar Agarwal, chairman of Creative Group, which has 80% exposure to the US market.

But he cautioned that unresolved tariffs could bring “chaos” and threaten jobs for his 15,000–16,000 employees.

The dispute comes amid high-stakes diplomacy. Trump is due to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, the first such encounter since the Ukraine invasion, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken to both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to urge a peaceful resolution.

Some Indian exporters report fresh US orders already drying up, risking livelihoods in one of the world’s largest economies.