Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance are expected to approve another modest increase in oil production as the group continues its drive to capture a greater share of the global market.

Analysts anticipate the “Voluntary Eight” — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — will raise collective output by about 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from December, matching last month’s increase.

The eight countries, which have coordinated production levels outside the formal OPEC+ framework, have already expanded their supply by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) since April.

The expected decision marks a significant shift from the cartel’s earlier policy of restricting output to prop up prices. Facing renewed competition from US shale producers, OPEC+ is now prioritising market share over short-term revenue gains.

“Supply by US shale producers is not increasing anymore, it’s going sideways,” said Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB bank. “There is less investment in new US production.”

OPEC+ members are expected to justify their move by citing “low oil inventories” worldwide. Data from the US Energy Information Administration show that American crude inventories have fallen sharply, helping keep Brent crude prices stable at around $65 a barrel.

However, analysts warn that adding more barrels to the market could depress prices if global demand weakens. “Not reintroducing them would cause panic,” said Emily Ashford, energy analyst at Standard Chartered, noting that investors could interpret restraint as a sign of weakness in demand.

Ashford added that while OPEC+ quotas may increase by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), actual production is likely to remain lower due to capacity constraints and the need for some members to offset earlier overproduction. Russia, already operating near full capacity, may face further restrictions after the US imposed sanctions targeting its top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, in late October.