Britain’s economy surged in the first quarter of 2024, marking its most substantial growth in nearly three years. 

This effectively pulled Britain out of the shallow recession that had plagued it since the latter half of the previous year. This economic performance provided Prime Minister Rishi Sunak a much-needed boost, positioning him favorably ahead of an impending election.

According to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.6 percent in the three months leading up to March, representing the strongest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021, which witnessed a notable 1.5 percent increase. 

Prime Minister Sunak hailed this turnaround as evidence that the economy had “turned a corner,” emphasizing a positive trajectory after the challenges posed by the pandemic.

However, the opposition Labour Party, led by Rachel Reeves, challenged Sunak’s optimism, cautioning against premature celebration and highlighting ongoing concerns about the economy’s true health. Despite the differing interpretations, the first-quarter growth outpaced that of both the eurozone and the United States, positioning Britain favorably in the global economic landscape.

Nonetheless, Britain’s recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn has been sluggish compared to other major advanced economies, with lingering effects exacerbated by external factors such as surging European natural gas prices following geopolitical tensions. 

By the end of the first quarter of 2024, Britain’s economy remained only 1.7 percent larger than its pre-pandemic level, lagging notably behind its G7 counterparts.

Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, highlighted concerns regarding the sustainability of the growth trajectory, citing ongoing weaknesses in productivity growth and limited scope for further employment increases.

The unexpected strength of the first-quarter growth took many by surprise, exceeding all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists. This unexpected resilience prompted speculation about potential revisions to inflation forecasts and the timing of future monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of England (BoE).