Imports into the United States fell more than expected in June, as uncertainty over shifting tariff policies prompted retailers to scale back orders, raising concerns about reduced product variety for consumers.

Figures released on Friday by the National Retail Federation (NRF) showed that major US ports handled 1.96 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of containerised cargo in June — an 8.4% decline compared to the same month last year. The volume was, however, up 0.7% from May.

The decline was sharper than the NRF had anticipated. Just a month earlier, the trade body projected ports would process 2.06 million TEUs in June, a 5.9% rise from May and a 3.7% fall year-on-year.

The drop coincided with the implementation of several new tariffs under US President Donald Trump’s trade policy.

As of 7 August, duties on certain imports range from 10% to 50%, with India, Brazil and Switzerland among the countries facing the highest rates.

Trump has made frequent adjustments to tariff levels since the so-called “Liberation Day” announcement in April, when a baseline 10% duty was unveiled. A temporary truce with China in May saw rates lowered to 30%, but further increases resumed in July.

The NRF warned that the volatile policy environment is weighing on supply chain planning. “The uncertainty around tariffs has impacted retailers’ ability to forecast holiday orders and shipments,” said Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy.

“As tariff rates increase, consumers will ultimately face higher prices and less choice and availability during the holiday season. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them.”

The federation’s latest outlook suggests that import cargo volumes at major container ports in 2025 could end the year 5.6% below 2024 levels.

Apparel retailers have been among the most affected. Companies such as Under Armour and Deckers Outdoor have reported tariff-related pressures in recent months and are seeking to diversify their sourcing and logistics operations to avoid duties on goods routed through, or originating in, Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam.

Gold cautioned that the economic impact of tariffs could be far-reaching. “Tariffs will result in higher prices for US consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy,” he said.

For now, the policy shifts have left retailers in a holding pattern, navigating unpredictable costs while weighing the risks of reduced stock and product variety in the months ahead.